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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

However the latest race is fundamentally different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still