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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to Trump's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd