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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."